Thursday, May 24, 2018

SPYGATE - flaw in the narrative

It appears that Trump is claiming that the IC launched a secret surveillance on his campaign before it informed him of the risk posed by suspected RIS operatives. This is bullshit - but let's review the facts.

The FBI was investigating Page from 2013, there were suspicions about Micheal Flynn going back to 2014. The Trump campaign began in mid 2015. Flynn was recruit to the Trump campaign because of his public disagreements with the Obama Admin and the rest of the IC. Page started wandering around the Trump campaign in late 2015 and he was interviewed last in March of 2016. He joined the Trump campaign soon after with Sam Clovis hiring him.

Trump and Hillary Clinton were formally briefed in August 2016 by the FBI of the RIS threat to their election campaigns.

In October 2016 Trump openly on TV asked Russia to hunt for Hillary's missing emails.  Later laughs it off as a joke.

We also know no - from Micheal Cohen's email exchanges with Felix Sater that all the time that Trump was publicly assuring us that he was not in business with Russia, his lawyer Cohen and fixed Slater were busy trying to set up a major hotel deal in Moscow.

So this claim that Trump was

a) unaware of RIS threats to his campaign is bullshit. If he was trying to get into bed with RU investors on a hotel deal and his fixers were burning shoe leather trying to get meetings with Putin, then it stands to reason that he was acutely aware of RIS interests. No one does business in Russia without being aware of Siloviki interests.

b) not sufficiently alerted by FBI/IC about the RIS infiltration of his campaign is also bullshit because even after he was briefed in August 2016 - he clearly disregarded the advice and explicitly sought help from Russia to win the election.

The FBI is under no obligation to ask Trump (who everyone knows had deep business interests in Russia) about who it investigated as RIS provocations.

Until it was clear that the targeted individuals like Page and Papadopoulos etc..   were actually up to no good and deeply entrenched in the Trump campaign - there was no need to tell Trump of anything.

So this whole thing is IMHO a canard.

The objective here to deflect attention from the story about Cohen and Sater were negotiating with Putin's guys to get Trump a sweet hotel deal in Moscow while he was campaigning and publicly lying about having "No ties to Russia".

If the mainstream media had identified the issue correctly with Trump and educated voters about the extraordinary nature of his lies on key national security issues, I believe we would not be in this mess.

However as the media attempted to keep an even keel between GOP and Democratic groups, it slipped up on the original mission to educate the public on real threats posed to national security.

It is a separate matter that the education would produce no change in the GOP "base" which is hostage to its cataclysmic stupidity.

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

SPYGATE - Trump's attempt to stave off an impeachment & get rich quick.

When Trump's scandals began to pour out last year, I commented that there was a weird equilibrium in place that would prevent the GOP from impeaching him until it was politically convenient to do so.

I stand by that remark.

It was not politically convenient for the GOP to impeach Trump while he had not yet passed their tax cuts or appointed the judges they so badly desire (without pliable judges to help shrug off the accountability for their sins - the GOP might be a less criminal enterprise). But once he passed the tax cuts they wanted and appointed the judges they wanted - Trump's utility for the GOP was diminished.

His leverage with the GOP basically ended as soon as he passed the tax cuts. Ideally he would like to delay that as much as possible, but with the OSC Mueller probe nipping at his heels and his overall administrative performance (as seen by the extremely high turnover) hitting rock bottom, he didn't have a choice but to give in to the GOP demand for a tax cut.

Now the 2018 elections are upon us and the GOP has to consider what is the best strategy to ensure some kind of electoral fund-raising (or more correctly the flow of funds into their personal coffers continues until the election results are announced).  If Trump can't give the GOP what they need by way of funds through his own efforts - they will have to sacrifice him on the alter of electoral politics.

That is why Trump seems to be having the TweetShits lately. He knows he has to shore up the finances from his base to keep the GOP from crawling up his rear.

The idea of holding Trump to the sword like this is a good one. For one the "base" which is really attached to him will be very scared of seeing him impeached. Trumpers know they chose poorly when they voted for Trump, but as they are too embarrassed to admit it, they are constantly in search of a fig leaf to cover their true feelings. The racist dog-whistle politics, the slandering of the IC and national institutions, the routine incompetence at mundane matters (i.e. pandering to stupidity) are all tools Trump uses to give Trumpers a notion of saving face. Just a little something to make them feel a tiny bit less stupid than they already do. Without that daily pick-me-up from Trump these Trumpers would have nothing.

And that is what the GOP could reasonably hold over them. The threat to impeach Trump comes from the GOP itself. When Trump rants and raves against "Democrats" and "FBI spies" etc... he is actually complaining in code about the GOP establishment. He knows they will impeach him if he doesn't arrange enough funds for them. Trump has to be careful to couch this in the usual "Obama is a Kenyan" or "Lock her Up" rhetoric or he risks exposing his followers to humiliation. So in his bizarre cryptospeak - Trump vilifies the GOP establishment.

By threatening to impeach Trump, the GOP can coerce Trumpers to support GOP campaigns and pour cash into their pockets. Trump for his part can hope to make out like a bandit in the upcoming election as the fear in his "base" induces donations to be made to his "cause". Who knows what the election will bring - perhaps a blue wave or perhaps not - this way at least Trump and the GOP will be too rich to give a shit.

All in all, I have to say this is working well. I can't see a way this approach could possibly fail.

With Posobiec et al suggesting that the GOP will "Impeach Obama" if brought to power and the Democrats will "Impeach Trump" if the GOP is not elected - you can see how the average Trumper is now faced with no choice but to keep supporting Trump & the GOP.

And in exchange for this support - what will the Trumper get besides a few more days of face saving? Nothing really - like Harley Davidson, his/her employer will leave town and set up shop in China and that will only increase his desire for the daily pick-me-up from Trump. If they complain - Trump and the GOP will simply remind them to stop whining because this entire thing was about giving older white men a sense of potency by pretending that the rules didn't apply to them and that there was no accountability for their misconduct - clearly that has bee achieved.

The Democrats however must be wondering how to turn this situation to their advantage, but the thing is - with the entire investigation under the control of the Republicans - there is little room for the Democrats to maneuver. Their only hope right now lies in their outreach programs to produce a shift in the traditional apathy associated with Democratic voters.

Otherwise the 2018 mid-terms will be easy victory for the GOP.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Trump's people are turning on him

Like more rich and stupid people, Trump has surrounded himself with people that agree with whatever he says.

These enablers are not what I would call "good people" - as they are into Trump only because so far he has helped them get rich off all sorts of shady stuff.

I think these people are slowly realizing that supporting Trump's bid for President was a bad idea - as the scrutiny his organization came under was too intense. The FBI for its part picked up that a bunch of Trump guys were in bed with Russia and they were going around making promises to end sanctions in exchange for support during the election. When the FBI's guys went and poked around "Motel Trump", they found it was full of roaches.

Now the roaches are making a run for it.

As most of his close allies are realizing that the FBI has sunk claws deep into this investigation, they are jettisoning Trump and turning witness for the state. The public exposure of the UAE, KSA, Qatari and Israeli financial channels has rattled Trump's friends. The public knowledge of Cambridge Analytica, Wikileaks-RIS ops and the Israeli Black Cube "private intelligence agency" role in Trump's election is making it hard to associate with Trump's platform for too long.

Trump knows this too well.

That is what prompted the yesterday's tweet storm.

Trump knows that even if he promises people like Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump a presidential pardon, it will be difficult for him to actually arrange that in the face of public exposure. Once OSC Mueller starts nibbling away at the lower players - they will all give up the next person up in the chain in order to secure a sense of immunity from prosecution. If nothing else they will blame their own actions / lack thereof on the guy above them.

This will eventually limit Trump's ability to negotiate anything more than a jail-free departure from the Presidency. The ability to protect loyalists will decline precipitously and that in turn will provoke all manner of blowback. It will be very difficult for brand "Trump" to survive this situation.

And then there is the anger of the betrayed Trumper - the MAGA moron who nuzzles his AR-15 to bed each night. How badly will he feel to be betrayed like this? and what will he do?

Unless Trump is able to discredit the Mueller investigation - there is no way he can hope to stay out of jail.  His own kids will shop him out if they are put in a position where they have to decide between him and their own welfare.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Its not rocket science... c'mon people.

It really really is not rocket science.

Trump is attacking the FBI and IC because they have evidence that he committed treason*. Unless he is able to paint the FBI and IC as being corrupt and vile, there is no way he will be able to dodge those charges in a court because the evidence is too strong. Every criminal tries this strategy in court - accusing the Police of personal bias against him/her -  it never works. That has never stopped any criminals from trying. And since the media is carrying both sides of the message, Trump can't hope to escape the comparison to common criminals - so he is spreading venom about the Media as well. And when that all fails to distract from his actual crimes.

Trumpers are latching on to the anti-FBI/IC rhetoric from Trump because they don't want to face up to the fact that they were duped by a slick RIS backed NYC conman. Most Trumpers see themselves as the socially dominant caste in America. They would lose their psychological strength instantly if they were to admit that a guy they deemed as their own savior (despite everyone else warning them that he is not who he claims)  is actually someone who is destroying them. I don't think these people are ever going to come around to a more sensible position.*

For the liberals - there is little choice.  To hold Trump to account for his crimes will not make the Trumpers come to their senses - they will stand by their idol regardless and try to initiate a civil war. To allow Trump to continue his attacks on the United States and its defensive machinery would be a bad idea as the Trumpers will try to set up a genocide of Liberals. Either ways its bad news for Liberals - fight a civil war or be killed in vast numbers by AR15 toting Trumpers high on FoxNews/NRA/Breitbart/Circa/RT crap.

For realists like me - perhaps this too should be expected. The Boomers are carrying unsustainable amounts of debt on their heads. They have borrowed so much from the future that there is nothing they can do to ever pay it off. This fundamental lack of productivity will present in different ways - and will have the same consequences - i.e. a degradation of the debt quality. One way or another - we are going to have to write off this as bad debt. And since we (the generations to follow the boomers) are on the hook for coping with the aftermath of that regardless of the specifics of what happens. I guess this is how the Silent Generation (i.e the Greatest Generation) must have felt.

* Treason is technically defined only in times of war where the definition of an enemy of the United States exists.

** Even if the Democrats and Liberals go to great lengths to save the country from Trump's actions, these Trumpers will still find reason to hate the liberals. The bulk of this Trumper population is the most entitled generation in human history. Their collective Affluenza will stop them from admitting responsibility for this fiasco. They will continue to paint themselves as heroes and their "libtard" enemies as total villains.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

The reasons behind moving the embassy to Jerusalem

Historically the city of Jerusalem has always been important to people of many faiths, and for that reason alone the US foreign policy has tried to stay clear of the who exactly owns it. Any move to make it look like one faith "owns" the city makes interactions with people of the other two faiths particularly difficult.

Given that Israel militarily seized the city in the war of 1967, the US approach has been to refrain from legalizing Israeli control over the city and the West Bank. While the US recognizes that Israeli national security argument regarding the lack of strategic depth for its coastal belt are correct, it is difficult to determine what if anything will ever give Israel enough depth. It seems as if every time a measure of depth is achieved, some new catastrophic vulnerability asserts itself.

In the decades past when the bulk of US/European oil came from Iran or Saudi Arabia, getting this oil through the Suez was critical for US and European economic security. Engaging Israel provided the US (and Europe) with a way to discourage nations like Egypt from getting too grabby with the Suez Canal. Today this is no longer the case. With Russian, North Sea and US oil sources well developed - the critical nature of the Suez has declined.

As the importance of the Suez to oil shipment has declined, so has Israel's position in Washington DC. Gone were the days of Yitzhak Rabin. The memory of the Holocaust faded from American minds and with it the guilt for having stood by as such a horror took place. The wars of Israel were a distant annoyance at best - something to not get mixed up in.

As Israel is very strongly dependent on a combination of expatriate remittances (or financial support of the diaspora) and US military and economic aid to remain viable - there was little choice in the matter. The two flow private financial support and US govt support are correlated and the toehold in DC was a way to ensure that there are no sudden cash flow issues.

For Israel, projecting the Islamist threat out of the Middle East has been crucial for keeping it's toehold in Washington DC. While I completely agree with Gen Ehud Barak's perspective on Bibi's actions vis-a-vis engaging the GOP, I have to also accept that there is a reason behind it that goes beyond Bibi's "dangerous intellectual" framework.

Bibi continuously tried to entice the Obama Admin with visions of oil under the Golan Heights and the same approach was attempted with Congress in the last decade with continuous whispering about the Leviathan oil and gas field but to no avail. The US was flush with fracked hydrocarbons and there was no need for them to engage Israel's inaccessible and unknowable reserves. The failure of Bibi's efforts with the Obama Admin and Congress in the last two decades drove the Adelson engagement with Trump. This is why the Kushners and Friedmans suddenly became big shots.

That said I feel that the engagement with the GOP hasn't produced any visible result for Israel. The Israeli position in Washington DC seems to be in a decline. There is pressure inside Israel on Bibi (and his supporters) to show visible results for all the money pumped into the GOP. So far the only thing one has seen is the empowerment of American Nazis as a result of Bibi's engagement with Trump.

To counter this complete failure - Bibi pushed for a visible gesture of support for Israel. Trump resisted Bibi's charms until he needed to pay hush money to stall the Mueller investigation and that is when the "Move the Embassy" idea came into being. What Trump's true political leanings are should have been obvious in his choice of the preacher to lead the prayer at the opening of the new embassy.

While Bibi intended to celebrate the opening of the embassy as the start of a new age of influence for Israel in Washington DC, he was reduced to watching as Trump's evangelical supporters celebrated the day as a step towards the second coming of Christ. So while Bibi cheered, the Trump-vangelicals celebrated the beginning of a conflict which would lead to the extinction of Jews and Muslims and the eventual return of Jerusalem to Christian control.

I am reminded of the testimony of Hauptstrumfurher Franz Stangl during his trial for genocide. As the Camp Commandant at Treblinka, Stangl had the path from the undressing chambers to the gas chambers made to seem as peaceful and calming as possible. The entire camp was deliberately camouflaged as "Transit Station" and a "Red Cross First Aid Station" to fool the Jewish prisoners into thinking they were being led to a place of safety and peace. That is not where they were being taken.

I get the sense that is where modern Israel finds itself.

Unless a way is found to defuse the crisis caused by this mess - I fear Israeli security has been permanently and irreparably fractured.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

The common enemy is Nazism

I am trying desperately to find a way to stem the bleeding out of the mess in Gaza.

Today Millenarist cults in Israel and the US are in a race to precipitate an Apocalypse from which each believes they *alone* will emerge as the "Chosen" ones. As I have indicated earlier - every Kamikazi pilot, every SBVIED driver in every conflict believes exactly this same shit and being "Chosen" isn't anything like what is advertised.

Israel and Palestine are both victims of the same tragedy. While each may grieve differently - their suffering stems from Nazism and its horrific consequences. When Adolf Hitler and his gang set the Holocaust in motion, they also effectively set in motion the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Recall the Hawara agreement which sought to "repatriate" German and European Jews to Israel in exchange for the Reich seizing the property? - given the existence of heightened levels of anti-Jewish sentiments in Islamic lands - IMHO the Nazi intention there was to effectively ghettotize the Jews in Israel itself so that they would present a compact target for extermination with advanced weapons at a later date.

I do not believe Nazism died out in 1945. I feel it lived on - hiding itself in other forms of right wing extremism. We are seeing its re-emergence in various contexts and as we are so tuned to seeing it in only one form - with Hugo Boss fashions - we are missing how it is oozing out of the woodwork.

Exacerbation of conflict between Israel and Palestinians is very much part of a Nazi agenda. The Nazi agenda always had backers in both the extremist fringe in Christian and Islamic lands which sought to liberate Jerusalem of the Jews. It would not surprise me in the least if the Nazi fraction of Trump's political spectrum see the move of the embassy as a technical affair aimed at sparking a long conflict that is fatal to Israel and the Palestinians.

Given Israel's technological powers, it is difficult to see how a disorganized Palestinian mob could overwhelm it. However it is easy to see how the minds of Israelis could be turned towards Nazi visions of humanity - how ordinary Israelis could be made to think of the Palestinians as sub-human vermin. It is also very easy to stoke Nazi ideas of exterminating Jews in minds of Palestinians when their beloved Jerusalem is taken from them.

By amplifying the sense of alert in Israel that exists over the possibility of an Iranian nuclear strike on its coastal cities, a concurrent Intifada in the Occupied Territories (yes there are still that legally) - one could easily lure the IDF into a scenario where it commits a genocide. This will be the biggest victory for Nazism.

There are always evil people of the Rumkowski variety - and we can debate who the current Israeli leadership are really like but I can guarantee you that the same Trump supporting Evangelicals celebrating the move of the embassy will turn on Israel. It is no accident that Jeffress was asked to lead the prayer consecrating the Embassy.

Is there any way that the sane people left in Tel Aviv can reach out to the sane people in WB or Gaza and reach a meaningful agreement on limiting escalation? 

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Trump's PR war on the USIC

As I have stated earlier, Trump was most likely used as a USIC asset to spy on RU conflict capital being moved on to Wall Street. As the KGB realized that the Soviet economic collapse was imminent it began to off-shore capital into Wall Street/London/Paris etc... There was no way for the USIC to know if this was a genuine capital flight or a hostile provocation aimed at destabilizing the US economy, so I feel it is likely that they engaged a number of people to keep an eye on things.

I strongly suspect Trump was one of their informants. This is the only way I can explain how he was able to get so deep into bed with the various mobsters in NYC, Jersey and Mogilovich without getting fried by the FBI-NY office or by the Treasury Department or the Manhattan DA. Absent this connection, I am at a complete loss to explain how numerous DOJ people going back into several admins - Democrat and Republican - continually vouched for guys like Felix Sater. My only explanation is that the dog didn't bark because it was told that the visitor was a friend. In Trumper terminology - Trump is as much a part of the "Deep State" as anyone else is. Perhaps it helps to think of this as an analogy to the Whitey Bulger scenario.

However unlike most other CIs I feel Trump did not understand what came with the CI status. Unfortunately in this kind of work, the CI has no expectation of rights, the CI's life itself is the property of the handler/case officer. This would be a very difficult fact for someone like Trump to swallow, especially if he was recruited via an appeal to his ego or if the conduct of his CI duties put him in a position where his ego was constantly polished.

I also suspect that if a CI goes rogue and tries to reset their relationship with their handler or case officer, then the move will backfire tremendously on the CI. I think Trump is currently suspected of attempting that kind of reset. There is ample evidence in the public realm that suggests that Trump went off-script in his meetings with the Putin side of the RIS in 2013. There is also significant suggestions of a similar off-script relationship with the Bibi side of things in Israel. This is just a suspicion at this time and it cannot be said that there is not a foreign influence in the critical processes of the US government.

Unfortunately IMHO neither the Putin side of RIS nor the Bibi side of things in Israel capture the real perspective in Moscow or Tel Aviv. Their perspective is quite myopic and it is difficult to see how Trump acting in their interests even briefly works for USIC. Sure providing a portal for the views of these governments to the USIC would be a positive development but a very narrow portal with more short term commercial interests doesn't seem that useful.

From this POV - this Trump thing - is simply an ongoing intelligence operation. It is now an attempt to defeat unintentionally adverse or actively hostile influence operations that degrade the US national security scenario or generally impair the ability of the USIC to do its job properly.

The Mueller inquiry is a way to put Trump under the microscope. Trump's response to being put under the microscope is not the response of an innocent man. An innocent man would declare his innocence and hire competent legal representation. Instead Trump has chosen to attack the USIC and the Mueller inquiry itself.  It is impossible to see this as anything but a hostile action by the agent of a foreign power. In this kind of climate - it seems irrelevant to even continue the inquiry as the CI has already confessed to the crime that he is accused of.

However the inquiry itself is needed to ensure that the public at large is informed of the nature of the criminal conduct. At the present time there is sufficient evidence to impeach Trump on grounds that he has violated a number of emoluments and campaign finance rules. There is a pervasive stench of organized crime and corruption around his people.

The GOP will naturally fight this impeachment process as most of the electoral financing comes from outside the US (hence all the dark money payments) and their legislators will burn up tremendous amounts of social capital doing this. This is as bad as it sounds.

The Democrats (like the USIC) will have to balance the need to impeach Trump with the need to secure against future political adversities. So my guess is that while the Democrats will be keen to launch an impeachment process, they will be unwilling to conclude it until their wider political survival parameters are met.

From the liberal perspective, this is not ideal but we know now from events yesterday in Israel that hard right wing forces all over the World are driven to precipitate an Apocalypse in the hope that their are "chosen" to survive*. So it may reflect an immediate political reality of our times.

* perhaps due to cultural barriers they don't quite realize that every ISIS SVBIED driver has identical ideas and the outcome of being "chosen" is quite different from what is naively anticipated.