Wednesday, August 16, 2017

"Total Moral Collapse"

I think Paul Staniland has hit it on the head  - after Trump's last press conference the US has suffered a "Total Moral Collapse" of its federal government.

This is a serious problem as it has strong implications for law and order. In the vacuum created by this moral collapse, criminal organizations will move resolutely to undermine law and order.

As many of you are aware, whatever law and order means (how ever twisted that may be), it is held in place by the police departments of the land. A little known fact about police departments is that each houses a slush fund. In the US this fund is filled using the "Civil Forfeiture" process. By way of this process police departments across the US seize illegal property or just property from people who are too weak to push back against it with expensive lawyers. These funds have a purpose, they keep the departments functional. Given how varied police funding is in different parts of the US, the civil forfeiture amounts vary. Other slush funds are also around, mostly in the form of money/assets that is "borrowed" from special operations.

One of the most interesting documentaries to emerge out the Cville incidents was the work of Elle Reeve. In the documentary at the 9 min mark, a 3%er (or Oathkeeper) can be seen on the phone with some police official. The 3% er threatens to send "200 men with guns" to do something unless the Police official complies with his demands.  This gave me a very Punjab 1980s vibe.

Armed men talking down to police officers is something I first saw in Punjab in the 1980s. After that point was crossed, the Police began bribing the extremists not to be hit. The slush funds built carefully over decades in the local PDs were quickly drained down as the Khalistani extremists (now chock full of random criminal elements) began to demand a higher baksheesh not to kill cops.

I feel we are in a similar place in the US. A number of police forces are infiltrated by Nazi sympathizers. It is difficult to gauge the extent of infiltration but risks of this kind of thing multiply in mofussil areas where police forces are small and there just aren't enough resources to do anything at all. It is in such areas that the Nazis with their heavy weapons can overwhelm local policing resources and compromise the slush funds.

Once those slush funds are under the control, they will try to establish a mafiosi system which pays them instead of the local PD. In this way the Nazis will supplant the local government.

Readers should recall that the Nazis were able to carry out the bulk of the holocaust in a very short time because they quickly reorganized local police units and reserve units to perform the actual task of genocide. These units had already been infiltrated by genocidal persons like Christian Wirth and so they were able to adjust to the needs of the task of mass murder.

I think we should recognize that to Donald Trump's failed political platform the Nazis were nothing more than AstroTurf. The only interest Donald had in them was a political fodder for his divisive political campaign that appealed to the racial fragility of old white boomers. I guess in that sense the old white boomer is not that different from the old Hindu boomer in India. Both share a sense of cultural displacement and a racially driven sense of fragility.

But the reality of Nazism is that it is not anyone's AstroTurf. It is a persistent and unrepentant evil - a most horrific form of criminality that soon overwhelms those who seek to ride it into political power. Once this criminal beast is off the ground and running - there is often no way to stop it without killing a staggeringly large number of people.

By refusing to recognize these facts and pandering to some twisted sense of ego - Trump has failed to provide the critical leadership needed at this time. With him acting like this the USG will not be able to bring federal resources to bear on the Nazi problem and the cancer will metastasize. It will most likely consume the police forces - that most vital organ of our civil society.

I can't say I am surprised - Trump is not known for his ability to lead  - only for his ability to beguile.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Nazi astroturfing operation has failed.

The whole point behind Bannon and Co orchestrating the Nazi march in UVA was to create an illusion of massive public support for Trump. This became necessary as pressure on Trump grew from the Trump-Russia investigation and from his abysmal failure to keep nuclear escalation risks contained v/s North Korea. The Korean crisis with its direct implications for Bank of Japan - one of the biggest CBs investing in the US economy was really bad, we were seeing massive negative trends in the KOSPI and DJIA.

Faced with flagging poll numbers and a stock market that seemed to be sensitive to the details of the handling of the DPRK crisis, Trump had to launch some kind of micro-Reichstag fire that would make him seem indispensable. Otherwise the blame for this would fall directly on him.

The way it should have played out was that the Trump inspired Nazi march would invite a massive Antifa counter-protest. And the clashes between the groups would escalate to the point where the police would seem justified in using excessive force to go after the Antifa.

Things fell apart almost at the get go. The Antifa - Nazi clashes did not create quite the ruckus Bannon and Co wanted.

The Antifa for their part took a more muted approach focusing on aggressive internet exposure of Nazis rather than physical confrontation with armed Nazis.

In order to increase the tempo of the operation, the Nazis began attacking police for not being harsh enough with the Antifa.

This made it more difficult for the Police to justify attacks on the Antifa.

When the pressure built up inside the Nazi groups, they responded the only way they know - by murdering people. A Nazi drove his car into the counter-protesters and killed an unarmed woman. The Police are now trying their best to treat this like a innocent accident, when photo evidence from the scene of the crime is directly pointing towards premeditation.

The Nazis know they can't deflect from the murder charge so they have taken to vilifying the late Heather Heyer. The Stormer has come out with an article saying that she was was a "Childless, Fat, 32 Year Old Slut".

It is interesting to note that the Daily Stormer has dropped its "Blue Lives Matter" chant and suggested that the police officers who died in the VSP Helo crash on the same weekend deserved to die. This draws a visible line between the Nazis and the pro-police crowd. It also sets the stage for effectively labeling Police as "Race Traitors".

The Nazis are very keen to lay blame for this mess on the Police or someone else.

With the greater portion of the non-MSM coverage pointing towards RW aggression as the main driver, even parts of the GOP have escalated their war on the Nazis inside the WH.

The result of this utter fiasco is an major widening in the fissure inside the Trump Admin. The Ivanka/Jared/Bibi faction has broken ranks with the Oval Office and they are openly taking up a stance that defies the Nazis. This makes sense as their personal brand afford association with something so toxic.

The Bannon guys are digging their heels in. Their main argument (as espoused so eloquently by David Duke) is that "We did this for Trump". David Duke went so far as to say that Donald Trump should remember that "White People brought him into the WH". This IMHO is a very telling statement, it is at once a declaration of support for Donald Trump but also a subtle reminder to him that Duke and his Nazi kinsmen know where the bodies are buried.

The result of the Bannon willingness to dig his claws into Donald Trumps posterior is that Donald Trump cannot say a single word against him and with each passing day becomes ominously close to becoming described as a genocidal Nazi himself.

This massive fissure is cascading rapidly another CEO has left the WH businesses advisory council. Trump has criticized the CEO for leaving (and now its up to 4 CEOs out of the group) but it is another nail in the coffin of this administration.

Today - with attention turned away from the DPRK nuclear flashpoint - we are seeing stability return to the KOSPI and the DJIA. However if the impression that Donald Trump is some kind of closet genocidal freakshow gains too much ground both DJIA and KOSPI will resume falling again.

The Nazi astroturfing operation has failed miserably. It has created more problems for Trump than he could have imagined. He was barely able to keep above the water - this shit has straight up pushed him under. He can't blame this on anyone else - he is the boss - and this is on him.

The Nazis for their part are out of control. We can anticipate an upswing in attacks on minorities and police. This situation is very similar to the Punjab in 1983 after Op Bluestar. One should expect defections in the police and armed forces as closet Nazis break out.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Estimates DPRK CEP and OAR for HS platform

Yesterday KCNA helpfully released this item about a DPRK strategic forces general explaining exactly how long a flight of 4 HS would take to reach Guam and that they would fall 30-40 km from Guam shores.

A lot of people like Ankit Panda are saying this is an effective NOTAM as DPRK does not issue NOTAMs for its ballistic missile tests. Ankit may be correct about that but I feel like they are more/less signalling to us what they see as the accuracy of their missiles. This part of any nation's decision making is very obvious to infer once you have CEP and OAR numbers.

Based on this DPRK General's statement I can peg the 2DRMS (98% hit probability) at ~ 10km. Which puts the CEP (assuming the DPRK guys aren't being weird about statistics) at ~ 4km at a range of 3000 km.

Also noting that they choose to fly 4 HS on this mission, I am guessing that they think they will lose half to enemy action and half to platform failure. As there is no target to hit here - this appears to be a demonstration only flight - I am guessing there will be no warhead on these.

I feel this puts the DPRK perceived OAR at something like 25% for the HS platform.

The CEP numbers are reminiscent of the estimates for HS/Rodong platforms but slightly better.

I haven't had time to do detailed calculations, but maybe that is not necessary as the DPRK guys are reporting the same CEP as an HS-9 platform at 3x the range. That suggests they are doing a better job of it than they were on the older HS platforms. Absent major improvements in manufacturing, tolerances and quality control, I can think of only a few ways to achieve this.

I suspect they are using a radio signal to shut off the stage 1 engine at the right altitude and I suspect that they may be hacking a GPS or navigation signal to correct their trajectory. (This is where the discussion on grid fins is making the rounds).

I really wish the people at ACW would get in a room and beat their heads together on what they think the guidance system for the HS ICBMs is. They have eyes on this for a very long time, also I am skeptical that anyone has been able to recover the guidance compartment from the recent HS tests in SoJ. It is unlikely those would have survived impact or that it would be possible to find where they fell on the ocean floor without putting in some serious effort. I don't think one is going to get to see the guidance systems, at best one might get a few helpful hints from the Libyran HS variants that were donated after the Gaddafi regime fell. I think the ACW guys guesswork on the choice of guidance systems is the best we can do as OSINT goes.

I feel that that if the DPRK guys are themselves convinced that their CEP is poor and OAR is low (like the Guam KCNA press release suggests), then they will have no choice but to pursue a high yield staged physics package.

So far I do not believe they have demonstrated anything beyond boosting. From single point measurement of the Mb values at Pungyi-Ri I think until we see a M6.3 quake at that location and an attendant Neutrino detection events, I am not comfortable saying that DPRK has the capability to achieve staged nuclear reactions.

This I feel really acts a major driver in DPRK nuclear testing.

In the past I have stated that a "Shipping Container" or "Bullock Cart" nuke (as they call it in India and Pakistan) is not a reliable means of delivery. I stand by that, but as a holy-fuck-I-am-desperate-for-any-deterrence-at-all idea - it is sadly viable.

I feel Trump has pushed the US into a commitment trap. If Trump does not deliver a military action, he will lose face and while that might be a reasonable thing for others, it is not something he can expect to survive politically.  The US for its part will suffer even more if Trump does not action on his talk of a decapitating strike. The US will lose credibility regionally, and given how weak its position in the Korean peninsula is - the US cannot afford a major credibility loss.

We are on the path of no return.

A lot of what happens next will be determined by whether DPRK can demonstrate a staged burn capability. If Trump inspired B1-B patrols do not deter DPRK from testing - then it may make sense for South Korea to change sides and sue for peace independently of the US. 

ps - Also apologies to people who were waiting for the Bridges of Xizang County post. I am still working on correctly identifying the 11 key bridges across the Tsang Po.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Standoff at Doka La: Some Thoughts

A lot has been written and said about this.

I am not convinced a threat to the Siliguri corridor is emergent. I am not seeing a path to de-escalation.

Someone seems to be selling the idea that if India went toe-to-toe with China on the Himalayan border the US would have India's back. This kind of assurance has been given in the past, but I am not sure whether it has led to an acceptable outcome for India/America. A very simply counter-move which the Chinese can mount to this is to pre-empt the cooperation, i.e. to escalate the situation before either India or the US are in a position to action on the proposed alliance. That will leave India and US in a hole that neither can climb out of.

I want to briefly review what I feel the situation in China is, and where I feel things are going internationally vis-a-vis China.

1) China controls a vast fraction of bulk manufacturing of goods on a global basis. The major driver of this dominance is low labor costs in China (approx 10x lower than US/EU). Most of the low labor costs emerge out of China's vast labor pool. China's labor pool is large because its population is large and its agricultural sector has significant amounts of hidden unemployment.

2) China has been able to steadily grow its industrial labor pool by pulling labor out of the agricultural sector. However recently China appears to have reached or crossed the "Lewis Point".  Given that it is no longer as profitable to transfer agricultural labor in to the industrial labor market, and the fact that the Chinese population growth rate has slowed - the industrial labor pool in China is not growing. This is causing labor prices to rise and margins in China based manufacturing to fall.

3) A typical US/EU based manufacturing business has a low margin ~ 5%. Shifting manufacturing to China, adds ~ 15% to the margin of the business. Most corporate executives can't resist that spike, the bulk of the margin goes into their bonuses and salaries. If that margin falls it cuts into the bonuses and parachutes of the corporate leadership in US/EU.

4) Neither the Chinese nor the US/EU corporate big shots like the idea of falling margins but there seems to be a divergence between these groups on what to do about it.

  • The Chinese want to cut down on transportation and energy costs. By shifting to renewables* and reworking sea/road/rail transport mixtures** to get lower $/ton-mile the decline in margin can be made back. Unfortunately this cuts into the paychecks of the coal and oil barons who sell fuel to China and it give China even more control over sea and land based communication routes. Done this way, the corporate bigwigs of today would be reduced to the rulers of Indian princely states in a few decades.
  • The US/EU corporates want China to hand them a slice of the emerging luxury goods market. The lust for branded goods in China's newly minted economic elite is high, and people are willing to pay a very high premium on branded products. Right now this market is supplied with knock-offs. If China agrees to respect the intellectual property and trademarks regime, the US/EU corporates would get access to a new market in China and that would make back the lost margins. This doesn't work for China as it puts too much control in the hands of US/EU corporate groups. It brings back Chinese memories of the colonial period where everything "good" was foreign made. 

5) It is no surprise therefore that the Trump Corporation is so keen to get access to trademarks and the apparent exclusivity they confer. It should also be no surprise if Trump is willing to throw his voters under the bus to get China to give his company a leg up.

6) Unfortunately Trump cannot directly leverage China with threats of a trade war. That would cause all corporate executives in the US/EU to turn on him. He can't carry that much heat, especially as people already suspect he is a RIS agent. So Trump has been reduced to applying lateral pressure on the Chinese.

7) China only sees India as a place to dump products that do not make it to US/EU markets. India doesn't care for that treatment. But lacking a real dependence on Chinese profit margins, and supported by its own expanding industrial labor market, India can afford to piss of China (Something neither US nor EU can really do). So when it comes to putting lateral pressure on China, India would be the natural place to start.

I suspect someone from the Trump side has gone around stoking the Indian Army's perennial fears about China. After 1962 the IA has something of a "we'll show them" psychosis when it comes to the PLA. It is simply too easy to bait the IA into a "stick it to the Chinese" adventure.

In wider terms, the Chinese insistence on treating Pakistan as "our Israel" always goes against India's strategic outlook which tends to see Pakistan as "our backyard".  With the large community of ill-educated Modi Bhakts who claim to know everything about the world, the India-China dissonance over Pakistan is a good lure also.

So in grand terms - India is perfectly positioned for a totally unproductive war with the PLA in the Himalayas. Various segments of the Indian national security community know this, but since the Modi regime only listens to sounds that come out of its own posterior (see demonetization saga for details), no one is willing to listen to them.

No one appears to want to hear that a confrontation with the PLA could escalate to levels that will be very painful to India.

No one appears to want to hear that the vulnerabilities attributed to the Siliguri corridor exist along every MSR used to 3 Div and Joshimath Bde forward positions. (FYI I don't know if these formations are on alert yet).

No one seems to care that an escalated conflict along the Himalayan border would invite China to deploy nuclear weapons in outer Tibet and that would put the entire Gangetic Plain with 700 Million Indians within range of China's nuclear tipped and highly tested SRBMs.

Fantasies about the capabilities of the SFF are easily sold these days to an army of twittards and an ounce of Bhakti is made to seem worth a kiloton of common sense.

So this is where the "Occupy Chumbi" ideas are coming from.

It's like the "Occupy Skardu" ideas of 1998-2002.

It is deja vu all over again. 

* China pays ~ 5x the price for carbon based energy because the fuel has to be transported out there from distant sources but solar panels are made cheaply and locally. By contrast the US pays ~ 5x the price of solar panels in China but carbon fuels are available cheaply and locally.

** Road + Rail offer significantly lower cost per ton-mile than shipping for smaller volumes. A shift away from high volume sea transport creates an incentive for an innovation driven agile manufacturing sector which affords much higher margin for China and US/EU corporate types. This is why the Chinese put that much effort into running a train all the way up to London.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Micro grids are not a reliable substitute for nuclear base load generation.

We are seeing France proceed on reducing its nuclear generation capacity. This move has baffled most of us who see nuclear power production as a critical component of a low carbon base load.

Nuclear base load plants come with their share of issues

1) High capital outlays,
2) Need for "Spinning Reserves" (to hedge against loss of generation and accidents), and
3) Spent fuel related costs.

France is the world leader in nuclear electricity technology, and with the election of E Macron, most rational people were hoping for France to surge ahead on climate change issues. As the center of gravity of the world was shifting back to Europe and Asia. The French were supposed to be leading agents of positive change.

I am struggling to understand why the French chose to reduce their nuclear generation capacity.

One of things I have come across is a myth that is gaining ground among anti-nuclear renewable advocates.  The core of this myth embodied in several public articles [1][2] is that local generation and storage ("Micro grids") will reduce dependence on base load.

I call this a myth because while the economics of distributed generation are somewhat explored, the economics of distributed storage are a complete unknown. The whole micro grid concept is untested at scale. We have no idea what it costs to keep one of those operating for long periods of time.

FWIW - I favor smart compact grids that exploit all opportunities for localized generation and storage. I strongly support building scale storage like flow batteries and so on.

Where I am choking on this is the idea that this is somehow a dependable alternative to base load. 

Whatever you may feel about a nuclear power it is a much more survivable asset than a windmill or a solar panel. It is protected against earthquakes, hurricanes and so on.

Yes I know about Fukushima - but it was a f*cking Tsunami - nothing w survive that. But by the same token Japan's power grid has survived numerous earthquakes and typhoons - that won't be the case if it runs on windmills and solar panels.

Local generation options and small grids are not as survivable as base load power plants.

I feel like people are missing this dimension in their thinking.

What you are actually going to do by shutting down nuclear power plants is jack up your carbon emissions while exposing yourself to much greater amounts of catastrophic risk.

A few subtle issues about economics that folks seem to be missing

A lot of people are clinging to the idea that somehow massively crashing the economy will cause the Fed to forgive all debt, thus ending the massive credit crisis that looms over the future. The reason people think this is that they are extending poorly thought out ideas from personal scale micro-economics to the macroeconomic performance of the country as a whole.

A lot of people are drawn to the notion that personal finance is a good analogy for national economic behavior. There is a similarity but it's actually very different at the national scale.

The correct mapping between your personal debt picture is and the national debt picture looks something like this.

1) You get a salary, the government gets taxes.

2) You borrow from your credit card company/bank, the government borrows from the Fed by selling bonds.

3) You make a payment on your debts, the government pays the dividend on the bond.

4) You pay taxes to the government, the government pays for social services that benefit you (in the US this is mostly social security and medicare).

It is best to view the entire economy as a "debt trafficking" operation. You borrow from someone else and that someone borrows from you.

So if you think that crashing the economy through some Trumpian nonsense will lead to your personal debts being wiped out, that might happen but... that will also completely wipe out your earnings and since you won't be paying any taxes, the government will have no money with which to pay for those social services you are receiving.

This effect is sometimes called deflation. And here is where it gets interesting, since you and your government will at this point need to borrow money from somewhere to survive (o/w you won't be able to buy food and the govt won't be able to pay its employees) - your or your govt's debt history will factor into any creditor's calculation.

Historically deflation has occurred in various places and the resulting debt restructuring has always been accompanied by extremely high interest rates because lenders have to confront the fact they are taking on greater risk. You basically end up with predatory lenders at that point. You never come out of a bankruptcy without a interest rate hike or massively higher insurance premiums.

So even though it should wipe out your debts, the economic crash could just as easily cause you to go even deeper into debt.

The Trumpers are slowly coming around to the reality that the man that they voted for is something entirely different from what they thought he was, but they are still clinging to the stupid ideas of dodging their debt. It was idiotic ideas of this kind that led them to Trump's door in the first place.

Liberals need to understand that Trump isn't the worst thing that can happen, there are far worse things out there.  This won't end even if the book closes on the Trump saga. The underlying idiotic behavior will continue.

What Trumpers need to get that it is nice to be able to fantasize about what life would be like if  you didn't have all that debt... but if you actually end up in a situation where you backed off on debt servicing, you'd quickly spiral down an endless black hole of debt.

If you still don't believe me, just ask the first black people you see on the street and ask them what that is like.

Or go to the nearest refugee center and ask the people coming from war torn countries in the world what a debt trap feels like.

Friday, July 07, 2017

Some thoughts about money laundering patterns

This is an offshoot of a discussion with @MWR_DBM on twitter.

As wealth is acquired through illegal means by a criminal, they look forward to enjoying its benefits. This poses two main problems. The wealth many be stolen by the criminal's associates - for example - the guards protecting the ill-gotten cash may run off with it or change loyalties. Or the government may take it all away (i.e. 100% taxation) and jail the criminal.

Coping with these catastrophic risks makes criminals seek out ways of "laundering" the money - i.e. way of making the money less visible to these catastrophic risks.

I feel it is best to divide money laundering into two basic patterns.

1) transferring the money - where the wealth acquired illegally changes form, hands or jurisdiction. The main aim of such operations is to hide the original sources of income. Examples of wealth transferring mechanisms are restaurants, hotels, casinos or strip clubs. Here people come in and spend cash, and there is no way to know how much anyone actually spent. It is easy to claim that people spent more money than they actually did - no revenue intelligence entity ever actually audits the restaurant and the patrons at the exact same time. This turns illegal cash into legal cash.

2) storing the money - where the wealth is kept in a form that is relatively unchanging and slightly growing. The aim here is to create repositories which may be retrieved by their rightful owners at will. There are two main forms of storage which I call "static" and "dynamic". In "static" storage the wealth is converted into an asset which either keeps its value or grows slowly. The ownership of the "static" asset is relatively transparent. The asset is usually a piece of real estate, or a vehicle or a commodity. In "dynamic" storage the wealth is moved around frequently through a range of assets which all appreciate in value. The rapidly rising value of the asset is necessary to the repeated offset transaction costs. The "dynamic" storage can be anything even something as abstract as a cryptocoin.

As most criminal enterprises massively degrade the value of human life, they end up producing large "profit" without visible investment. The amount of money generated is so large it quickly exceeds the criminal's ability to spend and they have find ways of coping with the money.

As the criminal is always shouldering massive catastrophic risks, their investment culture is very different from the normal investor. The normal investor makes money legally and lives without the constant fear of losing everything. The normal investor stores their wealth in stable low risk assets and only a small fraction of their wealth is ever invested in high risk ventures (typically about 1% if you are from Asia and about 10-20% if you are from the US/EU).

A criminal investor can't afford to be so relaxed. One way to think about it is that things that the ordinary investor thinks are risky, are as safe as an FDIC insured savings account to a criminal investor. This changes the investor expectations significantly.

A case in point is real estate investment. Most ordinary people look upon real estate as a place to stay. It is a lifetime investment, and very few people have other investment properties - usually ones that are inherited or bought as a means of generating rent.

While an ordinary investor may balk at the idea of putting down $1M for an apartment in a Trump development, a criminal investor will gladly pour in $3M into three apartments  because they know that Trump will ask no questions about where the money comes from & even if the apartments lose value, they will still be worth more than a room with stacks of $100 bills wrapped in plastic in where-ever-the-fuck-istan. Even at a massive loss of value (~25% for most people during the 2008 crisis), the criminal investor still gets more out of this transaction than they would if the cash had simply sat somewhere.

Now if the real estate values are exploding (as they once did around 2004), then it makes sense to use shell companies to quickly move the real estate asset around. This is an example of "dynamic storage". In this approach, you and a close friend in RU government set up shell companies in Panama and then toss Florida real estate between yourselves. After a dozen swaps and sales, you have effectively confused any investigative agency about who exactly owns the asset and what if any tax obligations they have.

This is one of the many weird ways in which the criminal real estate market differs from the normal real estate transactions market. Given the way the valuations are these days, I feel the criminal real-estate sector probably accounts for ~ 10% of the GDP, i.e about half the money in the RE sector is from conflict economic sources.

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Is there a way to change things w/o misleading people?

When you want to change something, can you do it without subterfuge? I sometimes feel that is not the case - people become set in their ways and there is no way to get people to change without using the Pied-Piper-of-Hamelin approach.

It appears that is what the GOP is going for here.

I am at a complete loss to understand how a party of fiscal conservatives and national security hawks that has long courted older white voters is supporting a man suspected of spying for Russia and actively promoting an end to social security and entitlement spending that will kill its own vote bank.

The only way to reconcile this with the core of conservative ideas is to admit that the entire position is a feint.

The GOP is using the Trump agenda of radical change to fool older white voters into accepting massive cuts in entitlement spending.

Everyone accepts entitlement spending is unsustainable and there will be no way to support aging boomers through their retirements.

Boomers are quite rightly angry, they paid into social security and medicare all these years but they are not going to enjoy the benefits of that. But the boomers know they haven't paid enough into the entitlement system and that there is no productivity to support the long healthy retirements that the numerically smaller Great Generation came to enjoy.  Boomers also know it is too late to fix anything - there is no way to re-inflate the entitlement fund.

The GOP seems to be taking Boomer anger and funneling it towards other sections of the population. Once this anger has been controlled, the GOP will go ahead and implement steep cuts in medicare and social security.

It is foolish to believe that cutting Obamacare, Supplemental Medicaid & Welfare will not impact Medicare or Social security. Programs like that ensure that people do not become sick, they actually reduce the load on Medicare and Social Security by increasing their effective productivity of the aging population.

If you cut these ancillary programs, you basically cut the number of people who live long enough to claim Medicare. Once your illness reaches a point where the Medicare costs associated with it are too high, you are dead. Dead people don't claim Social Security.

Quite naturally the GOP behavior is reprehensible. It is criminal to exploit a human being's ignorance in a manner that leads to their death.

As the Democrats reach out to older voters and inform them of the GOP's actions, there will be indignation - but the GOP will simply say that was Donald Trump's agenda and after all - the same voters wanted Donald Trump.  This also works if it is proven that Donald Trump is a RIS agent - the GOP simply shrugs and says "Gee... but the voters loved him".

This allows the GOP to wash its hands off the entire affair - in the same way as center right German parties washed their hands off the whole "Hitler" issue.

I don't want to see history repeat itself.

There must be a better way to do this.

Is there any way to avoid misleading people like this?