Monday, January 08, 2018

Chandan Nandy's Quint Article

I am sure most of you have seen this article which has now been withdrawn citing issues with the sources. Shivam Vij has come out with an article attacking Chandan Nandy's credibility. [1]

As both these events add a kind of dark credibility to Chandan's article, I want to focus on some of the issues that were raised in the article.

A few people have indicated that this article by Chandan will serve Pakistan's agenda and make the case that Jadhav is an R&AW agent. I feel this is jumping the gun. It is possible he will be executed by Pakistan, but Pakistan appears to be aware that such an act will really vitiate the atmosphere. It is unfortunate that both India and Pakistan need to spy on each other. Given that background, it will be best if that spying is kept to a civilized level.

In my earlier post on the Jadhav affair, I had indicated that per usual R&AW practice it was extremely unlikely that Jadhav, a navy officer would be hired to be an illegal agent inside Pakistan. The R&AW adheres to the CIA/MI6/DGSE norms of never posting a military officer in a cross border intelligence role in a hostile nation. This is disfavored because it can be misinterpreted as  declaration of war.

As the Chandan Nandy article indicated Prime Minister I K Gujral had called the R&AW's "offensive" operations inside Pakistan to an end. This decision was most likely taken because the costs associated with these operations outweighed the benefits. When Prime Minister Gujral made the decision he would have consulted various stakeholders but his decision did not sit well with a section of the R&AW who felt that this reduced their leverage vis-a-vis Pakistan.  B Raman who at the time was quite influential in such matters publicly stated his disagreement with Prime Minister Gujral, but it was clear from Sri. Raman's writings that no government since then choose to take that barrier off. This barrier laid into the structure of R&AW operations by India's Prime Ministers effectively prevented the R&AW from "doing a Bangladesh" again.

I feel Prime Minister Gujral's idea came under attack at various points. Most notably after 26/11 - there was a lot of rethinking. It was an extremely bad idea to burn down Mr. Tata's house. Surely the Pakistanis could understand there would be serious repercussions of that. I do not know for certain if the barrier was ever moved in Sri. Manmohan Singh's time as PM but I doubt it. The quality of surveillance was raised but I doubt he would agree to another Partition. Having seen the effects of one Partition, I am quite certain he would never approve another.

Of Modi and his clan, I cannot speak as I do not know what truly runs in their minds.

It is clear from Chandan's article that Jadhav appointment was pushed forward during Director Alok Joshi's time. We do not understand why this was done in violation of R&AW standard practices. But absent a clarification on this issue, it is natural to question whether the intention behind hiring Commander Jadhav was to breach the barrier set by Prime Minister I K Gujral? 

The answer to the question is obviously NO. Chandan's report indicates this was a series of organizational errors inside the R&AW and there is no implicit or explicit desire to cause the partition of Pakistan.

That being said there is obviously an environment of mistrust to contend with here. It is unclear if Pakistan will be willing to accept that assurance from the R&AW.

8 Comments:

At 9:59 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

A New Era of Batteries Spells Trouble for Gas in America

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/a-new-era-of-batteries-spells-trouble-for-natural-gas-in-america

California, the state that helped birth the global boom in battery-toting electric vehicles, is trying to spark a similar transformation for utilities. And that spells trouble for power plants all across the U.S. that run on natural gas.

The California Public Utilities Commission approved an order Thursday that will require PG&E Corp., the state’s biggest utility, to change the way it supplies power when demand peaks. Instead of relying on electricity from three gas-fired plants run by Calpine Corp., PG&E will have to use batteries or other non-fossil fuel resources to keep the lights on in the most-populated U.S. state.

 
At 10:01 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

that would be some big batteries. very big.

 
At 2:45 PM, Blogger maverick said...

I am a little confused by this article. Grid scale storage has been around for a while now. What is the big deal here?

 
At 2:55 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

......that the electric company can no longer use natural gas for night time peak demand, they must store electricity for this use. thus natural gas usage is curtailed. where else is this method used......?

 
At 4:52 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Ah so the Californistan Enviro Mullahs have passed a fatwa that basically screws the NG lobby. Thanks.

We will wait and see if the faithful agree to that or if there is an Anbar awakening.

Sorry for the Islamic references, but I saw a tweet about how Saddam Hussein was having his revenge against the US by damning the US to be ruled by the Coalition Provisional Authority of Donald Trump. It made so much sense that I am now thinking that I must be living in Mespotamia. I guess we will soon hear of how Erik Prince's guards protecting our beloved Provisional Administrator shot up random people in our equivalent of Nisour Square.

 
At 12:18 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

you mean like something like this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/31/international/worldspecial/enraged-mob-in-falluja-kills-4-american.html

 
At 5:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Yeah I remember that - given the way this thing is proceeding right now, that might happen too.

 
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