Thursday, April 12, 2018

In Syria Putin and Bibi battle for who controls Trump

Positioned on the bedrock of resentful white racism, Trump's political platform stands on three legs - the Erik Prince leg (of mercenaries who think they should run the US NatSec apparatus), the Putin leg (of people who think Putin is God) and the Bibi leg (comprised of people who want to promote real estate investments in the West Bank and Jerusalem).

In Syria right now - the Bibi and Putin legs of the Trump platform have crossed.

Putin wants to keep Assad in place and a Syrian civil war simmering. The idea here is that with Syria burning away - neither Sunni Gas (KSA and UAE) nor Shia Gas (Iran and Qatar) will be able to pipe their way across into the Mediterranean and threaten Russia's stranglehold on European Union gas supply.

This does not work for Bibi. Bibi - like most Israelis wants to put the terrible past of the Nabka, the Occupied Territories and the Intifada behind - and make meaningful trade relationships with Arab neighbors. A big part of this is the international legitimization of Israeli anschluss of the West Bank and Gaza. Once that is achieved, given the importance of Judea and Samaria in the Jewish religion, the real estate in the West Bank will become incredibly profitable. The Kushner family has links to real estate developers in that part of the world, there is a natural zone of convergence between Bibi and the Kushners on this. 

Bibi want Iran out of Syria. It is making it very hard for Bibi to sell the idea of settling in Judea and Samaria to investors if Iran sits in Syria, emboldens Hezbollah and makes Assad comfortable with using CW. In general having CWs falling from the sky is a bad scenario for investors seeking to move into the Middle East but it bites Bibi in the rear quite hard.

Putin for his part doesn't want Iran to leave, if they do - he can't keep the pot boiling in Syria. Even if he wanted Iran to leave, he doesn't really have anything to offer them in exchange for leaving. Iran and Russia are on the same side when it comes to keep Sunni ME states from gaining a toehold in Syria but beyond that they are competitors for the same gas markets in Europe.

This is where it all falls apart.

Bibi is asking Putin to deliver something he really cannot.

For the moment Iranian and Assadist forces in Syria are seeking shelter in the same places as Russian troops are deployed. This is their best bet for staying alive. This way Trump can't kill them without killing Putin's people too. With Assadists and Iranians sitting so close to Russian troops, there is no way for the "deconfliction zones" to hold. 

If American forces hit Russians in Syria even by accident at this time both Putin and Trump will lose face.

If Russian forces hit US forces in Syria even by accident at this time both Bibi and Trump will lose face.

So Trump is flip flopping because he doesn't know what to do and Erik Prince's "conflict resolution" teams are worthless in this context as they cannot act without stepping on either Bibi or Putin's toes.

This creates a unique problem. With the Bibi and Putin legs crossed in Syria - the Trump platform is now seriously unstable and might collapse without warning.

14 Comments:

At 10:53 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

maybe trump will get putin's permission to bomb those empty syrian afb's, eh? that's what the barfites are betting anyway.....

 
At 7:10 AM, Blogger maverick said...

There was an exchange that I gather went something like this.

Russia - You give us list of targets you will hit so that we can stay clear of the bombs.

US - It might be easier if you give us list of locations where you are located. We won't hit them.

Russia - Mossad did Ghouta. (in the background - Mike Flynn Jr - "CIA Deep State" did Ghouta CW attack.)

US - Err... what?

Russia - World War III is likely to break out over Syria.

US - Only if you want to start it.

Russia - If you strike us, we will attack you.

US - Yeah.... sure and you will lose.

US (to Britain and France and Israel) - You guys getting this?

UK,FR,IL - Yeah - every word.

Side conversation

Bibi(whispers) - Putin - I want Iran out of Syria!!

IRGC(loudly) - Nope.

Putin(whispers back) - Bibi... be reasonable.


 
At 7:39 AM, Blogger maverick said...

I wonder at what point someone will tell Russia that their Syrian LoCs are much longer than the US regional LoCs.

Someone also needs to tell President Mattis that he needs a post-Assad Syria plan. If nothing is done on that front, we will end up with a major Iraq style mess.

A lot more people died in that post Saddam fiasco than did in the invasion itself.

 
At 3:38 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

the sea people are slowly gathering and rowing their dinghy to the eastern Med. mattis is taking his time.

there are reports of a bolton-mattis disagreement over potential strategy and timing with mattis favoring a go slow approach. or...this could be all bs.....who knows?

at any event, this looks like more than some missiles slamming into syrian empty afb hangers. could be wrong but it looks more serious for assad than ducking some missiles.

 
At 10:26 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

look like bolton won the argument with mattis.......and a lot of monkey hooting and cry baby wa-wa on the barf........for just a few love taps on some empty facilities? but no america is the eternal enemy of india and hopefully an american will be arrested in india......something feel good like that.....

 
At 1:56 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

more monkey hooting on the forum!

india and russia will march gloriously arm in arm in victory over their eternal enemy america......hee....hee. sorry, can't help myself. grin.

putin the boss, has deftly directed donald to shoot his missiles at abandoned bases thereby controlling the action. putin.....knows all...sees all.

must search all blond women at bus stops in india for illegal sat phones.....protect india. scourge the americans!

 
At 5:44 PM, Blogger Ralphy said...

bloomberg puff piece about missile attack.......however the last two paragraphs in the article are very accurate in my opinion.

i note with interest in the article that a new weapon was used by the us launched from a b1b bomber flown out of qatar............the qataris are getting very bold and brave in allowing this to happen from their soil......since when did they grow a new spine?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-14/warship-ruse-and-new-stealth-missiles-how-they-attacked-syria

 
At 7:51 PM, Blogger Nanana said...

TSJ, you still read the forum? :/

 
At 4:18 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

i love the "america is india's enemy" comments....it reminds me of how powerful grotesque propaganda is in people's lives......

 
At 5:42 AM, Blogger Ralphy said...

things are very tense in syria....anything can set them off....they unleashed a number of anti ac missiles in a false alarm attack last night claiming to have shot down a number of us ac. then belatedly they announced it was a false alarm.

russia is claiming to have shot most of the us missiles also a few days ago.

fun times in syria with a hair trigger.....

 
At 12:34 AM, Blogger murali said...

What is your view on SC judgement in loya case?

 
At 6:19 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Murali,

I have not had time to read the judgement yet.

This is what I feel the backdrop is.

The Loya case has effectively become an agni-parkisha on which the legitimacy of the Modi/Shah regime rests. Implicit in the Loya case is the charge of subverting the judiciary and law enforcement process.

Regardless of the outcome of the case for Modi/Shah - the Supreme Court and the college of judges has already taken a massive hit here. With open allegations against high ranking sitting judges, there are visible doubts about the viability of the separation of powers between the branches of government.

It is natural that the greatest priority for the apex court would be to distance itself from that toxic hell hole, but there was a split on how to handle the emergent situation.

As the court itself was now under the greatest scrutiny possible, the usual approach of lathering layers of legal double speak would not work. In effect the court would have to take a stand which protected its image.

If the court chose to ignore the new information - two things would happen,

1) it would have to conceive of a strategy to deal with the public impression that it is a rubber stamp for Modi/Shah and
2) it would have to offer clear reasons for rejecting the new information. This latter step would effectively provide the petitioners ways to re-appeal.

If the court takes cognizance of the new information - two things would happen

1) it would have to set up a clear explanation for why it chose to deem the new information as evidence. This would have an impact that is harder to quantify as it effectively calls into question the reliability of the existing information stream coming from the Police departments and Coroners offices.

2) it would amount to an open declaration of war against the Modi/Shah combine. And if the court believes the new evidence about Judge Loya's death - then the Modi/Shah combine has no qualms about killing judges - so whoever gives the verdict can expect to lose their lives.

I feel it is unlikely that the court will pursue the second path. Option 1 of refusing to admit the new information is much easier. It will impair the image of the court to some degree but not more than the grievous damage that the suspicious death of Justice Loya has already caused inside the college. Should this image of a subverted, subaltern court alter public perceptions about the electabiltiy of the Modi/Shah combine- then perhaps the new evidence could be reviewed by a competent law enforcement authority at a later date and re-submitted for review.

That is my best guess. I have not read the judgement itself.



 
At 10:40 AM, Blogger maverick said...

Hi Ralphy,

I am worried about the way things are progressing in Syria too.

I will try to summarize my concerns in a new post.

 
At 7:56 AM, Blogger murali said...

Thank you for the reply.

 

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